Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction, Odds, Picks – July 10

Data Skrive

Randy Vasquez takes the mound for the San Diego Padres on Thursday at PETCO Park against Josh Naylor and the Arizona Diamondbacks. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET for the third game of a four-game series. The Diamondbacks are the favorite in this one, at -124, while the underdog Padres have +104 odds to win. Arizona is the run-line favorite (-1.5). An 8.5-run over/under has been set in the matchup.

Take a look at everything you need from a betting perspective on the Diamondbacks-Padres game, regarding the run line, moneyline and total, plus expert picks.

Keep up with MLB on FOX Sports.

Diamondbacks complete comeback trailing four runs in ninth inning vs. Padres

The Arizona Diamondbacks completed their comeback trailing five runs in ninth inning against the San Diego Padres.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Game Information & Odds

When: Thursday, July 10, 2025 at 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: PETCO Park in San Diego, California
How to watch on TV: MLB Network, SDPA, and ARID

Favorite	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Run Line	Favorite Run Line Odds	Underdog Run Line Odds
Diamondbacks	-124	+104	8.5	-120	-100	-1.5	+135	-162

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction

Score Prediction: Padres 5, Diamondbacks 4
Total Prediction: Under 8.5 runs
Win Probabilities: Diamondbacks 53%, Padres 47%

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Betting Insights

The Diamondbacks have won 31, or 50.8%, of the 61 games they’ve played as favorites this season.
Arizona has a record of 21-21 in games when bookmakers favor them by at least -124 on the moneyline.
The implied probability of a win from the Diamondbacks, based on the moneyline, is 55.4%.
The Padres have been chosen as underdogs in 43 games this year and have walked away with the win 20 times (46.5%) in those games.
San Diego has a mark of 14-20 in contests where bookmakers favor it by +104 or worse on the moneyline.
The Padres have an implied victory probability of 49% according to the moneyline set by sportsbooks for this matchup.

Diamondbacks Recent Betting Performance

The Diamondbacks were the moneyline favorite in six of their last 10 games, and they finished 2-4 in those matchups.
In their last 10 matchups, the Diamondbacks and their opponents combined to hit the over six times (all 10 of the games had set totals).
The Diamondbacks’ ATS record is 5-5-0 over their past 10 games.

Diamondbacks Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	4-6
Runs Per Game	3.9
HR	14
ERA	3.60
K/9	8.8

Diamondbacks Player Insights

Geraldo Perdomo is batting .267 with 18 doubles, a triple, nine home runs and 53 walks.
Perdomo’s home runs rank him 130th in the majors, and he ranks 14th in RBI.
Naylor’s .296 batting average is a team-high mark.
Of all MLB hitters, Naylor is 91st in homers and 16th in RBI.
Eugenio Suarez leads the Diamondbacks with 28 home runs and 74 runs batted in.
Suarez will look to build on his two-game hitting in this matchup. In his last five games he is batting .278 with a double, a home run, a walk and four RBIs.
Corbin Carroll is hitting .251 with 14 doubles, 10 triples, 20 home runs and 31 walks.
Carroll takes a two-game streak with at least one hit into this one. During his last five outings he is batting .200 with a double, two triples, a walk and an RBI.

Padres Recent Betting Performance

In five games as underdogs over the last 10 matchups, the Padres have a record of 2-3.
The Padres and their opponents have combined to hit the over four times in their last 10 games with a total.
The Padres are 5-5-0 ATS over their last 10 games.

Padres Recent Stats

Stat	Avg/Total
Record	5-5
Runs Per Game	3.0
HR	8
ERA	3.68
K/9	7.6

Padres Player Insights

Manny Machado paces the Padres with 15 long balls and runs batted in, driving in 53.
Among all batters in the majors, Machado’s home run total ranks 42nd and his RBI tally ranks 31st.
Fernando Tatis Jr. has a team-best 15 home runs.
Tatis is currently 42nd in home runs and 88th in RBI in the big leagues.
Luis Arraez paces the Padres with a team-high batting average of .293.
Gavin Sheets is batting .262 with 14 doubles, a triple, 13 home runs and 26 walks.